Hi tsawyer,
Yes … as a matter of fact it’s the only way to make a reasonable estimate of the durability/longevity of a mattress. The label on a mattress, its warranty, or any stories that are attached to it has little to nothing to do with how long a mattress will last. In the case of the Ultimate Dreams … they have been making mattresses for about 14 years (although their Amazon site is not that old) and while that’s not an “old timer” in the mattress industry where many manufacturers have been in business for decades… they aren’t “new” either :).
The idea of “you get what you pay for” is sometimes true and sometimes it isn’t. In an apples to apples comparison between mattresses that are similar in terms of materials and components … you will find that there is a huge difference between good value and poor value in every price range. Of course the goal of the site is to help people find the best value and eliminate the poor value choices.
There is no way to estimate this exactly and you can read about all the variables that are involved in a mattress’ durability in post #2 here. As you can see … how long a mattress will last for you (as opposed to someone else) depends on many factors and sagging is only one of them. All materials will soften (or in the case of fibers compress and become firmer) and how much “room” you have for foam softening before the mattress is unsuitable for you in terms of pressure relief and alignment is perhaps the biggest factor.
Having said that … latex is generally the most durable of all the different types of foam (polyfoam, latex foam, memory foam) and higher quality versions of any foam will last longer than lower quality versions of the same type of material. The upper layers of a mattress are also subject to more wear and tear, mechanical compression, and softening (whether the softening leaves visible impressions or not) than the lower layers so in terms of durability this is where it’s most important to use the most durable materials.
Once you are making comparisons between “good and good” … then the final choices are all about individual preferences and the different options and materals that are more or less important to each person. There is more about these preferences in post #2 here. When you have eliminated the “worst” choices (which you mostly have although most people including me wouldn’t consider Tranquility to be in quite the same “value range” as the options you are mentioning or some of the options that you haven’t mentioned in post #21 here) … then the differences between two mattresses or suppliers are all about what is most important to you … including of course the components, quality, options, and price of each. A longer conversation with each of them is probably the most effective way to narrow down your choices.
Again … there really aren’t any better/worse choices when it comes to personal preferences. A latex core is certainly different from having a polyfoam core and in an apples to apples comparison with polyfoam it is more durable, more resilient, more elastic, more adaptable to different weights and shapes, more supportive, more “natural” and has a different more “springy” and responsive feel than polyfoam but it is also more expensive and for some people … a latex hybrid which has the benefits of latex in the upper layers (which are the most subject to wear and tear and contributes more to the overall “feel” of a mattress) is worth the cost tradeoff while for others it isn’t. There is also more about the different types of latex in this article and in post #6 here which may help you make the choices that are best for you.
There are many latex options in the San Jose area and some of the better options are listed in post #2 here.
Hope this helps
Phoenix