Hi AMG_Roadster,
Thought excercise/gamble is a very accurate way to describe it and these types of subjective or intangible comparisons involve intuitive guesswork and “best judgement” types of decisions more than “better / worse” comparisons that can be quantified more easily.
This brings up another part of the “thought exercise” which is the type, quality, durability, and design of the materials. Any mattress regardless of the materials it uses can work well for a period of weeks or months (or in some cases depending on the type of materials even for a few years) but durability (which you can’t “feel” when you sleep on the mattress) is another one of the variables that can have a significant effect on the long term “value” of a mattress. This is where knowing the materials in your mattress allows you to make meaningful quality and value comparisons. For example you can see here that this Dr Maas mattress includes 3 lb memory foam which is a lower quality foam and would be more subject to softening over time than higher density memory foam. The thickness and position of this layer would have an effect on the durability of the mattress relative to each person (see post #4 here about the many factors involved in durability). Lower quality materials are always less costly than higher quality materials but they just don’t maintain their original properties as long so knowing what is in the mattress also allows you to factor in durability and the relative cost and “value” of materials into your “value equation”.
This is often but not always true because of course online retailers or manufacturers don’t have the same costs of maintaining a bricks and mortar presence but there is also higher risk as well … especially with a purchase where specs don’t translate well into suitability (unlike something like computers for example where specs are more directly related to performance). There are many local manufacturers for example where the “local value” competes very well with online choices when you make apples to apples comparisons. Once again there is no right or wrong here … just different criteria between people … as long as all the parts of a purchase that are important to each person are disclosed.
Mattresses are a somewhat different type of product because what is suitable and “fits” for each person can be so unique. In terms of a mattress itself … most reviews are written by people who really have no knowledge of the quality or value of what they purchased and using reviews for a mattress to determine it’s quality, suitability, or durability are mostly meaningless. You can read a little more about the questionable value of mattress reviews in post #13 here. Because reviews are usually so subjective and have so little meaningful information that can be applied on an individual basis unlike other types of purchases they can be among one of the worst ways to buy a mattress.
Normally a return policy won’t help much with this because the typical issues that come from the use of lower quality materials don’t show up during an exchange period and usually happen much later (in the case of Stearns & Foster you would normally see this in around the 3 - 5 year period but sometimes sooner because this also varies widely depending on the circumstances). Of course they can be an important part of correcting a “wrong” comfort choice which show up much more quickly. Warranties (see post #174 here) are also not an effective way to predict the longevity or durability of a mattress or protect a consumer. The most reliable way to predict the durability of a mattress is by knowing the quality of the materials inside it.
You can see some of my thoughts about this in post #2 here (and the post it links to that compares a latex hybrid with an all latex mattress). If I had a choice and budget was not an issue then I would choose all latex over a latex hybrid mattress but the deepest layer of the mattress is the one that has the least effect on the overall feel and performance of the mattress and on its durability as well and the Alexis would be a good compromise between cost and having a mattress that was all latex. It’s much better to use firm polyfoam in the bottom layer than it would be to use thicker layers of polyfoam in the top layer because a mattress will tend to soften and break down from the top down.
I like your term “thought exercise” and that along with “educated intuition”, “best judgement”, and accurate information is really the best way to assess the most important parts of your personal value equation.
Phoenix